Forecast Discussion For Southern CT
000
FXUS61 KOKX 051552
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1152 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THIS FRONT CAUSING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TO ACCOUNT FOR A LACK
OF UPSTREAM ACTIVITY WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROF. THE
FEATURE IS SHEARING OUT AND WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE
SFC FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...IT WILL BE OVERCAST...BUT GENERALLY DRY.
WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD INHIBIT SEVERE CONVECTION. THIN BUT DEEP
CAPE EVIDENT OF PRECIP EFFICIENT STORMS...AND POINTS TOWARDS HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN TROPICAL AIRMASS. WILL
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IN HWO.
TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
FOR TONIGHT...VORT IMPULSES CONTINUING TO TRACK THROUGH ALOFT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA IN THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS.
PATCHY FOG LIKELY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS.
TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE IN TROPICAL
AIRMASS(MID 60S TO NEAR 70).
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER OHIO VALLEY SHEARS EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON
SUNDAY AND WEAKENS FURTHER MONDAY...AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING GRADUALLY
BUILDS WEST AND MAINTAINS A TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.
ON SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES OR MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION AS REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
RIDGING. BELIEVE THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S INTERIOR...UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 COAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND VORT ENERGY STILL TRACKING NE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE STRENGTH ON
SUN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE SURFACE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING WILL DICTATE SEVERE
CONVECTION POSSIBILITIES. APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH BEST HEATING.
SIMILAR SCENARIO ON MONDAY AS REGION REMAINS ON NW PERIPHERY OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. 850 HPA TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 16C...AND WITH
BREAKS OF SUN ONCE AGAIN...TEMPS ACROSS CITY INTERIOR SHOULD BE ABLE
TO GET INTO THE MID 80S. UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 COAST WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AS REMNANTS OF
UPPER TROUGH APPEAR TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. WITH MARGINAL TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ISOLATED SEVERE
CONVECTION POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL ALLOW A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON NIGHT...THEN AGAIN
ON TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON
WED...MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA WED NIGHT AND BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WED AND WED NIGHT...THEN THU
IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
WITH THE NEXT WAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA TRACKING GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-95 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT THAT CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE 12-14Z AS LOW LEVELS
BEGIN TO WARM EVER SO SLIGHTLY. THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
WILL SPARK AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP ACROSS
THE REGION 16-20Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR THIS WITH A CB CLOUD
GROUP. THEREAFTER...WE MAY GET A BREAK FROM ORGANIZED AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION AND MAY BE LOOKING AT WDLY SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA.
AS TYPICAL FOR TRYING TO TIME AND PLACE WAVES ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FORECAST TIMING IS LOW.
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AND THEN TO SE OR S IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TREK FROM W TO E
THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. AS SUCH...MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SUB VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRONT
LIKELY MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SOMETIME SUNDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE TERMINALS INTO
WEDNESDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE
DAY...AND DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY.
&&
.MARINE...
OFFSHORE OCEAN BUOYS (44025 AND 44017) CURRENTLY REPORTING SEAS
AROUND 2 FT. SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE CURRENT STATE WITH
A LIGHT E/SE (5 TO 10 KT) FLOW THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS...HAVE LOWERED
THE SEAS FORECAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH THIS UPDATE.
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL.
MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE PRESENCE
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE THREAT REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY
SHOWER OR TSTM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT
CONVECTION.
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH OF THE WATERS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW. BY
MONDAY...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE. SEAS WILL RESPOND...LIKELY TO MARGINAL SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER THE OCEAN BY MONDAY.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DOMINATE AREA WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
DURING THE PERIOD...APPROACHING SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TUE MORNING. AS A SOUTHERLY SWELL
DEVELOPS BY MID-WEEK...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD UP TO 4-6 FT
LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TODAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT
THROUGH MON.
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR ENTIRE CWA AS ANY OF THE
VORT LOBES WORK ACROSS THE REGION AND IGNITE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON PINPOINTING EXACT LOCATION OF
THESE LOBES...SO WILL NOT PUT UP FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN HWO FOR ENTIRE
AREA.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DW
NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion
