National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 030200
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1000 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE EARL WILL SPREAD IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL THEN DEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT. BASED ON
SATELLITE AND MODEL GUIDANCE...RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL NEAR OR
AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN NYC
WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IS EARL. CURRENT NHC FORECAST
TAKES THE HURRICANE JUST WEST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK FRIDAY
EVENING. EARL WILL BE STEERED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT BY A COMBINATION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SE AND AN APPROACHING 500 HPA TROUGH
TO ITS NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE STORM ON A TRACK THAT CUTS
THE CORNER FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TO JUST OFF OF CAPE COD.

THE MAIN IMPACT FROM EARL WILL BE POUNDING SURF/MINOR TO MODERATE
BEACH EROSION...AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. ATLANTIC BEACHES
COULD SEA SURF BREAKING AT 10-12 FT BY FRIDAY EVENING. REFER TO THE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS ON POTENTIAL
TIDAL FLOODING.

BASED ON THE TRACK AND EXPECTED ACCELERATION OF EARL IS IT TURNS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT OUTER RAINBANDS TO REACH THE AREA
AFTER SUNRISE...AND FOR MOST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO MIDDAY. THERE
WILL BE A SHARP WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...WITH THERE BEING SOME QUESTION IF ORANGE COUNTY WILL
RECEIVE ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OF FROM W TO
E FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH STRONGER BANDS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OVER EASTERN
AREAS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR DETAILS.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...BEST CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM WINDS IS OVER
SUFFOLK AND NEW LONDON COUNTIES BASED ON CURRENT TRACK.
HOWEVER...WITH EARL FORECAST TO BEGIN UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WIND RADII EXPANDING AS IT DOES
SO...A SLIGHT SHIFT IN TRACK TO THE WEST...WOULD BRING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FURTHER WEST...SO NO CHANGE TO TROPICAL HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME.

WITH TROPICAL AIRMASS COMING INTO THE REGION...EXPECT HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY (BLEND MAV/MET WITH MIXING DOWN FROM 950
HPA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF NYC)...AND LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT...MIXED NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MAV/MET BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SAT
MORNING...IF NOT EARLIER. BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE
SW AND THE DEPARTING TROPICAL SYSTEM...BRISK W WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION DUE TO
AN INTENSIFYING H5 LOW N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS SUN
AFTERNOON AS MIXING TAKES PLACE. WINDS DIMINISH ON MON AS AN H5
RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH WED AND A WARMING TREND. 90 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NJ. COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST 12Z GFS
HAS SLOWED THE FRONT...BUT THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE MORE
CONSISTENT 00Z ECMWF/GFS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HURRICANE EARL WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY
AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE. THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND STEADIEST SHOWERS WILL BE AT KISP AND KGON BY LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST WITH
REGARD TO HURRICANE EARL.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. POSSIBLE
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OUTSIDE CITY TERMINALS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND IN
HAZE FOR FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY
WITH ONSET OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS EAST OF CITY TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE ON FRI FOR TIME PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE ON FRI FOR TIME PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE ON FRI FOR TIME PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE ON FRI FOR TIME PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE ON FRI FOR TIME PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE ON FRI FOR TIME PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
FRI NIGHT...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BIGGEST IMPACT EAST OF NYC
METRO. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST FOR THE LATEST
DETAILS ON HURRICANE EARL.
SAT AND SUN...VFR WITH GUSTY W-NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAYTIME.
MON AND TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE TONIGHT.
WAVEWATCH DATA WAS RIGHT ON WHEN MATCHED WITH CURRENTS
OBSERVATIONS AND WAS USED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

HURRICANE EARL WILL BUILD SEAS FROM 8 TO 10 FT FRIDAY MORNING ON THE
OCEAN TO 12 TO 17 FT BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6 TO
12 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING AS EARL DEPARTS. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ON FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG
ISLAND SOUND COULD BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FT AS WELL FRIDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY NOT FORECASTING SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY
OVER NY HARBOR FRI/FRI NIGHT...HENCE THE WATCH. STRONGEST WINDS OVER
EASTERN WATERS FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO
HURRICANE FORCE OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET FRIDAY
EVENING.

SOLID SCA WINDS EXPECTED ON SAT...WITH MARGINAL SCA WINDS SUN.
SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN SAT AND SUN. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER PROBLEMS TO DEVELOP ON SAT DUE TO THE
DEPARTING STORM AND STRONG W WINDS.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH MON TO BELOW SCA LEVELS...WITH THESE
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM EARL WILL RANGE FROM AT MOST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER
ORANGE COUNTY TO 1.25 TO 2.25 INCHES OVER EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY AND
NEW LONDON COUNTY. MOST OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 1/3 AND 1
INCH OF RAIN FROM EARL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
UNDER THE STRONGEST BANDS FROM EARL...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE AS A RESULT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WED NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR NOW IT SEEMS THAT EARL WILL PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AT THE HIGH TIDE LATE FRIDAY OVER
THE WESTERN SOUND/NY HARBOR/BACK BAY. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
MODERATE FLOODING ON THE WESTERN SOUND AS WELL FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS SOME CONCERN THAT THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY SURGE...FROM WATER
BEING PUSHED BACK SOUTH ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF EARL...ON SATURDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CTZ010>012.
     TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CTZ009.
     TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ008.
NY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NYZ078>081.
     TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NYZ071>077.
NJ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NJZ005-006-011.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ330-335-340-345-350-353-355.
     TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANZ338.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion